Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
15M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 15M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 15M
- Best context
- 58.2% at 2200-2499 Classical
- Worst context
- 40.6% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.5% at 0-999, 57.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (300 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (104,028 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (131,422 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (53,043 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (290 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (912 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (287,014 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (325,421 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (121,287 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (1,639 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.2% expected score (2,416 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (557,247 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (672,269 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (226,433 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (5,202 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.1% expected score (4,935 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (848,001 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,181,352 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (351,338 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (13,561 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (6,612 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,126,742 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,759,770 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (457,225 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (20,108 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (4,740 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,251,151 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,867,157 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (450,261 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (17,947 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (3,388 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,017,027 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,019,222 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (213,557 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (4,810 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (2,222 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (682,998 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (290,783 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (40,881 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (571 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.9% expected score (137 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (135,491 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (21,977 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (992 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation scores 49.5% for White — we are 90% confident it is 49.5% — from 15M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 15M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, White wins 47.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 15M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (159K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (7.3M games) against 49.9% in Rapid (1.9M games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 289K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 736K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 2.4M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 3.4M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 3.6M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.0M Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.2%, draws 7.3% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 159K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 46.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 6.0M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 7.3M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 45.4%, draws 7.2% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 64K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.2% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.