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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense

4.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score52.0%Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.0%Based on 4.9M games
0%52.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.0%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%4.0%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c5
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
Analyzen=4.9M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 52.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 52.0%), based on 4.9M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.6% win rate (107,075 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.5% win rate (354,092 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.9% win rate (699,894 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.1% win rate (956,831 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.0% win rate (998,624 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (840,517 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.0% win rate (525,289 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.0% win rate (313,616 games)
  • 2500+: 39.0% win rate (72,128 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.5% win rate (3,192 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (1,203,692 games)
  • Blitz: 49.8% win rate (2,654,340 games)
  • Rapid: 49.7% win rate (976,363 games)
  • Classical: 50.3% win rate (30,479 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 69.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (35,233 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (58,327 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (13,448 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (87 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (96,681 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (193,867 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (63,051 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (406 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (255 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (159,683 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (382,031 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (155,551 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (2,374 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (869 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (194,134 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (524,750 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (229,796 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (7,282 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (815 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (199,770 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (550,794 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (237,124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (10,121 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (597 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (184,130 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (471,312 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (177,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (7,390 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (345 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (148,109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (296,788 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (77,705 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (2,342 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (166 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (135,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (156,489 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (21,336 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (413 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (50,740 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (19,982 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (118 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation
48.0%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 46.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.9M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.6% win rate for white (314K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.6%) outperforms Classical (43.6%) by 3.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 107K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 354K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 700K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 957K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 45.1% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 999K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.5%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 841K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 525K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 314K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 11.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.5%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-46.7%) win rate for white (1.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.0%) win rate for white (2.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-45.7%) win rate for white (976K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a 43.6% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.1%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense is slightly favors black with a 46.0% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.