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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense

4.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.0%

45%55%
Floor51.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 4.9M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.9M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
4.9M
Best context
59.6% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context
42.5% at 2500+ Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.3% at 0-999, 46.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 69.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (35,233 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (58,327 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (13,448 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (87 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (96,681 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (193,867 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (63,051 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (406 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (255 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (159,683 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (382,031 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (155,551 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (2,374 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (869 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (194,134 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (524,750 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (229,796 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (7,282 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (815 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (199,770 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (550,794 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (237,124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (10,121 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (597 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (184,130 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (471,312 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (177,088 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (7,390 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (345 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (148,109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (296,788 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (77,705 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (2,342 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (166 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (135,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (156,489 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (21,336 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (413 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (50,740 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (19,982 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (118 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation
48.0%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense scores 52.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.9% and 52.0% — from 4.9M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
4.9M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense, Black wins 49.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 4.9M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 53.0% (999K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.9% in Blitz (2.7M games) against 52.0% in Rapid (976K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 354K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 700K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 957K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 999K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 841K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 525K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 314K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.0%, draws 11.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.5%, draws 1.5% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 2.7M Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 976K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 50.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.9% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.