Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
6.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 6.8M games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.8M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 6.8M
- Best context
- 54.0% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 39.0% at 0-999 Classical
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.4% at 0-999, 56.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (1,142 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (105,272 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (189,157 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (105,849 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (726 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (4,711 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (206,385 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (382,759 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (160,129 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (2,990 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (13,293 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (345,625 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (665,463 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (256,257 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (7,544 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (15,252 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (443,869 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (831,715 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (330,495 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (13,357 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (10,069 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (451,978 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (742,388 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (277,817 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (12,031 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (4,712 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (347,758 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (412,704 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (133,682 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (3,601 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (823 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (173,395 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (96,414 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (22,500 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (248 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (97 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (52,601 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (9,130 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (1,006 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (4,049 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (490 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack scores 46.4% for White — we are 90% confident it is 46.4% — from 6.8M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 6.8M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack, White wins 44.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 6.8M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (4.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.9% in Blitz (3.3M games) against 45.8% in Rapid (1.3M games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 42.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 402K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 44.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 757K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 45.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 44.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 44.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 44.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 902K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 45.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 293K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 47.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 43.7%, draws 1.2% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 50K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 45.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 2.1M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 44.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 3.3M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 43.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 40.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 41K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 44.6% of its games and loses 51.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.