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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation

4.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.0%

45%55%
Floor50.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 4.0M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.0M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
4.0M
Best context
59.4% at 2500+ Rapid
Worst context
47.3% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.9% at 0-999, 61.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (41,208 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (53,393 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (10,217 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (111,968 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (202,824 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (55,831 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (333 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (301 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (181,252 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (396,600 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (145,019 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (2,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (711 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (212,062 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (506,673 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (214,287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (7,363 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (602 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (194,162 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (463,527 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (192,497 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (9,685 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (853 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (146,292 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (287,005 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (116,194 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (4,764 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (471 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (95,781 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (142,051 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (36,280 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (1,176 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (67,535 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (83,664 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (10,897 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (264 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (22,624 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (15,975 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (1,492 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 66.1% expected score (201 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation scores 50.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.1% — from 4.0M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
4.0M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation, White wins 48.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 4.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.7% (40K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.8% in Blitz (2.2M games) against 49.9% in Rapid (783K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 105K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 371K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 725K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 941K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 860K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 555K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 276K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 163K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.4%, draws 16.5% and loses 35.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 47 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 53.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 2.2M Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 783K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 45.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.0% of its games and loses 48.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.