Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation
3.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 3.3M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.3M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.3M
- Best context
- 58.0% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 41.1% at 1200-1399 Classical
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.4% at 0-999, 58.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (287 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (32,828 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (51,130 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (22,409 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (141 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (1,100 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (80,221 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (84,033 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (30,305 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (660 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (3,023 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (168,478 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (155,767 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (42,463 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (1,448 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (8,077 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (248,363 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (232,406 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (56,715 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (2,729 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (7,370 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (302,734 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (265,843 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (54,345 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (2,321 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (4,880 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (328,278 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (230,412 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (35,948 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (1,431 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (1,251 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (265,226 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (166,776 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (20,796 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (737 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (317 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (198,056 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (89,215 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (6,743 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (44 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (59 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (38,220 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (7,525 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (97 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation scores 50.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 50.6% — from 3.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 3.3M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.2% (46K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.7% in Blitz (1.3M games) against 48.9% in Rapid (270K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 196K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 371K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 548K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 633K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 601K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 455K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 294K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 48.8%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 46.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 270K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 42.3%, draws 6.2% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.5% of its games and loses 47.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.