Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
6.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 6.7M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.7M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 6.7M
- Best context
- 61.5% at 2500+ Rapid
- Worst context
- 45.3% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.1% at 0-999, 59.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.0% expected score (109 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (55,145 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (120,388 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (37,929 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (137 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (365 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (125,399 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (280,756 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (111,024 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (1,151 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (917 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (216,437 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (468,450 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (195,933 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (4,918 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (3,156 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (306,253 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (669,965 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (256,864 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (11,867 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (3,459 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (362,883 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (816,075 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (276,186 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (15,183 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (2,330 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (367,037 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (720,579 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (207,321 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8,689 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (1,628 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (273,265 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (356,641 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (75,467 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (1,782 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (566 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (154,887 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (113,393 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (14,714 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (168 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 66.4% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (33,433 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (10,995 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (829 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (217 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation scores 51.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.1% and 51.2% — from 6.7M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 6.7M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 6.7M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.0% (46K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.0% in Blitz (3.6M games) against 51.6% in Rapid (1.2M games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 214K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 51.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 519K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 887K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 709K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 284K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.0%, draws 7.9% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 48.9%, draws 1.4% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 3.6M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 48.4%, draws 6.1% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 44K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.2% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.