Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack
2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 2.4M games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.4M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.4M
- Best context
- 59.8% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Worst context
- 47.8% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.7% at 0-999, 63.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 33.1% expected score (28 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (6,967 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (7,530 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (2,535 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (112 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (22,113 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (19,608 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (6,344 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (90 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (331 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (52,259 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (49,177 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (14,132 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (406 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (1,079 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (109,235 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (120,358 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (29,669 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (1,457 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (1,386 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (182,508 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (239,863 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (52,161 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (3,048 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (855 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (259,042 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (335,708 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (67,476 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (3,658 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (670 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (230,262 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (221,265 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (43,107 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (1,223 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (412 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (179,240 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (77,319 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (9,291 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.7% expected score (130 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (38,552 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.3% expected score (4,694 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 66.8% expected score (180 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.1% and 53.2% — from 2.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.7% (43K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.5% in Blitz (1.1M games) against 54.5% in Rapid (225K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 51.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 48K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 116K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 262K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 479K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 667K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 497K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 266K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.3%, draws 6.6% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 48.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.5%, draws 6.1% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 225K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 50.4%, draws 8.1% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.