356K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 48.1%), based on 356K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 47% → 41%
Similar across time controls (~47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 356K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (20K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.3%) outperforms Classical (43.2%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 46.9%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 510 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 113K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 100K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 45.7%-55.5%) win rate for white (282 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.5%) win rate for white (157K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.2%) win rate for white (173K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.2%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.
In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a 43.2% (90% CI: 41.0%-45.5%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense is statistically balanced with a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.