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Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense

356K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.9%

40%55%
Floor47.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.1%.

Measured over 356K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 356K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
356K
Best context
53.0% at 1800-1999 Classical
Worst context
43.3% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.8%
Draws
5.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.2% at 0-999, 50.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (203 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (250 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (56 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (813 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (731 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (2,149 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (590 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (4,486 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (5,153 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,329 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (90 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (11,413 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (14,495 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (2,968 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (224 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (26,482 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (42,436 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (6,290 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (557 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (52 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (41,176 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (62,952 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (8,666 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (387 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (54,796 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (41,222 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (4,082 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (15,558 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (4,244 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (145 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Continuations (4)
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line
49.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line
50.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line
42.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line
43.1%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense scores 47.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 48.1% — from 356K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
356K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 356K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 49.5% (76K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (173K games) against 48.8% in Rapid (24K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 510 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 76K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 113K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.5%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 100K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.8%, draws 7.3% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 282 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 157K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.0%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 173K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.2%, draws 7.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.9%, draws 9.9% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.3% of its games and loses 49.5%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.