Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line
487K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.4%.
Measured over 487K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 487K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 487K
- Best context
- 50.8% at 1800-1999 Classical
- Worst context
- 39.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.4%
- Draws
- 5.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.2%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (307 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (213 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (42 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,624 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,164 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (235 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (4,379 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,824 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (993 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (10,540 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (10,853 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (2,694 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (102 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (41 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (23,370 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (28,583 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (5,339 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (371 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (47 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (46,248 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (65,513 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (10,500 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (666 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (51 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (61,489 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (74,446 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (11,335 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (380 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (67,789 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (32,710 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (3,973 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (69 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (14,385 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (2,083 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (142 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line scores 47.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.2% and 47.4% — from 487K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 487K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line, Black wins 44.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 487K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.2% (58K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.4% in Blitz (219K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (35K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 48.9%, draws 1.2% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 562 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 123K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 148K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.5%, draws 6.8% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 105K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.5%, draws 8.7% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 187 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 230K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 219K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.4%, draws 7.5% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.1%, draws 10.4% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.5% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.