TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line

487K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.4%Based on 487K games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.5%5.6%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bg4
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line
Analyzen=487K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.6%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 47.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 47.4%), based on 487K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.9% win rate (562 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.3% win rate (3,025 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (9,218 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.2% win rate (24,217 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (57,704 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (122,974 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (147,701 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.5% win rate (104,553 games)
  • 2500+: 37.5% win rate (16,617 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.4% win rate (187 games)
  • Bullet: 44.9% win rate (230,131 games)
  • Blitz: 44.1% win rate (219,389 games)
  • Rapid: 44.4% win rate (35,253 games)
  • Classical: 45.1% win rate (1,611 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (307 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (213 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (42 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,624 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,164 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (235 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (4,379 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (3,824 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (993 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (10,540 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (10,853 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (2,694 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (102 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (23,370 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (28,583 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (5,339 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (371 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (46,248 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (65,513 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (10,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (666 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (61,489 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (74,446 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (11,335 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (380 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (67,789 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (32,710 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (3,973 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (69 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (14,385 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (2,083 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (142 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 487K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.8%) outperforms Classical (44.5%) by 6.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 562 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 58K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 123K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 148K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 105K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 44.7%-56.6%) win rate for white (187 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.0%) win rate for white (230K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.5%) win rate for white (219K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.5%) win rate for white (35K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line has a 44.5% (90% CI: 42.5%-46.5%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Mieses Line is statistically favors white with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.