1.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a 55.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 57.5%), based on 1.1K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 52%
Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a 43.1% (90% CI: 40.6%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 47.5% win rate for white (109 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (48.1%) outperforms Bullet (43.3%) by 4.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a 47.5% (90% CI: 39.8%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 109 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 0.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a 40.3% (90% CI: 34.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 186 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a 43.7% (90% CI: 38.9%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 281 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a 40.9% (90% CI: 36.7%-45.1%) win rate for white, based on 374 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a 43.3% (90% CI: 38.5%-48.2%) win rate for white (279 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a 42.3% (90% CI: 39.2%-45.4%) win rate for white (678 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line has a 48.1% (90% CI: 40.7%-55.6%) win rate for white (120 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.4%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Reifir-Spielmann Line is slightly favors black with a 43.1% (90% CI: 40.6%-45.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.