Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line
1.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.
Measured over 1.9K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 10.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.9K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.9K
- Best context
- 54.7% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 89.3%
- Draws
- 10.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 57.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 11.9% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (16 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (31 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (56 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (144 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (182 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (402 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (254 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (561 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (34 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (79 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (45 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line scores 51.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.9% and 53.6% — from 1.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line, Black wins 46.3%, draws 10.7% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 1.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (849 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (1.2K games) against 53.8% in Rapid (105 games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line has a sharpness score of 89.3 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 223 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.6%, draws 11.8% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 605 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.4%, draws 11.9% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 849 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.3%, draws 10.6% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 126 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.7%, draws 8.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 606 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 12.0% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 48.4%, draws 10.8% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 105 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Czerniak Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 42.9%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.