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Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line

59K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.7%Range (90% confident): 46.4% – 47.0%Based on 59K games
0%46.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.4% – 47.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%5.3%50.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...e6
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line
Analyzen=59K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 46.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.4% and 47.0%), based on 59K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~41%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.2% win rate (41 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.5% win rate (261 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.0% win rate (854 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (2,104 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.3% win rate (4,924 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (11,232 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (18,452 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.6% win rate (17,012 games)
  • 2500+: 39.4% win rate (3,765 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (49%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 44.7% win rate (24,237 games)
  • Blitz: 43.5% win rate (30,731 games)
  • Rapid: 43.6% win rate (3,500 games)
  • Classical: 48.7% win rate (174 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (138 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (101 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (417 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (355 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (81 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (815 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,040 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (236 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,687 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,667 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (537 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (3,294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (7,035 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (833 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (70 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,305 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (10,951 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (53 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (8,317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (8,058 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (630 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (3,241 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (509 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 59K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.1% win rate for white (3.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.1%) outperforms Classical (45.9%) by 5.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 53.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 261 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 48.1% (90% CI: 45.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 854 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 48.0% (90% CI: 46.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 54.1% (90% CI: 52.7%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.6%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.0%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.0%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a 45.9% (90% CI: 39.7%-52.1%) win rate for white (174 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.