Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line
59K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.0%.
Measured over 59K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 59K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 59K
- Best context
- 51.1% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.7%
- Draws
- 5.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 34.9% at 0-999, 44.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (15 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (138 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (101 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (417 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (355 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (81 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (815 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,040 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (236 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,687 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,667 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (537 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (32 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (3,294 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (7,035 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (833 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (70 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,305 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (10,951 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (1,143 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (53 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (8,317 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (8,058 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (630 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (3,241 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (509 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line scores 46.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.4% and 47.0% — from 59K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 59K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 59K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 49.3% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.5% in Blitz (31K games) against 47.0% in Rapid (3.5K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 261 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 854 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.4%, draws 6.6% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.5%, draws 6.0% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.6%, draws 6.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 48.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 174 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Modern Defense, Carlsbad Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 50.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.