Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense
129K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.0%.
Measured over 129K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 129K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 129K
- Best context
- 52.9% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.2% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.5%
- Draws
- 6.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (109 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (109 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (284 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (330 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (95 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (896 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,314 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (264 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,358 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (4,073 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (798 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (79 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,219 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (14,724 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (2,464 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (205 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (10,730 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (26,635 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (3,531 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (167 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (19,042 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (22,085 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (2,001 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (7,995 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (2,681 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (84 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense scores 50.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 51.0% — from 129K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 129K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Black wins 47.5%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 129K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.9% (24K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.6% in Blitz (72K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (9.3K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 235 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 713 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.6%, draws 6.3% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.2%, draws 7.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.9%, draws 8.9% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.5%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.0%, draws 7.1% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 72K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.0%, draws 8.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.8%, draws 12.2% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 502 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.5% of its games and loses 46.1%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.