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Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense

129K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.7%Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 51.0%Based on 129K games
0%50.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 51.0%
Outcome Distribution
47.5%6.5%46.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...g6
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense
Analyzen=129K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.5%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 50.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 51.0%), based on 129K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (63 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.3% win rate (235 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.6% win rate (713 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.1% win rate (2,491 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.0% win rate (7,311 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.2% win rate (23,623 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (41,082 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (43,187 games)
  • 2500+: 42.9% win rate (10,760 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.0% win rate (62 games)
  • Bullet: 48.5% win rate (47,662 games)
  • Blitz: 47.0% win rate (71,975 games)
  • Rapid: 46.0% win rate (9,264 games)
  • Classical: 44.8% win rate (502 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (109 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (109 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (284 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (330 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (95 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (896 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,314 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (264 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,358 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (4,073 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (798 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (79 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,219 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (14,724 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (2,464 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (205 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (10,730 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (26,635 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (3,531 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (167 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (19,042 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (22,085 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (2,001 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (7,995 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (2,681 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (84 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit
46.9%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 129K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.2% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (44.9%) by 1.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 45.9% (90% CI: 40.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 235 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 713 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.8%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.9%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.2%) win rate for white (72K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.4%) win rate for white (9.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense has a 43.0% (90% CI: 39.4%-46.6%) win rate for white (502 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.2%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense is statistically balanced with a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.