Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit
39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.1%.
Measured over 39K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 39K
- Best context
- 54.2% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.2%
- Draws
- 6.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 65.4% at 0-999, 39.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (63 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (167 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (115 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (375 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (376 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (61 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (877 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (1,056 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (175 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,310 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (3,023 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (404 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (4,030 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (6,171 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (577 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (7,233 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (7,321 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (451 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (3,395 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (813 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.0% expected score (28 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit scores 49.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.3% and 50.1% — from 39K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 39K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 39K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 53.3% (2.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (19K games) against 49.8% in Rapid (1.7K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 119 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 312 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 827 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.5%, draws 6.6% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.7%, draws 7.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.0%, draws 8.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 8.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.3%, draws 9.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.