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Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit

39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.7%Range (90% confident): 49.3% – 50.1%Based on 39K games
0%49.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.3% – 50.1%
Outcome Distribution
46.3%6.8%46.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bg7
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit
Analyzen=39K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.8%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 49.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.3% and 50.1%), based on 39K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +2.6% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.5% win rate (33 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.2% win rate (119 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.4% win rate (312 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.5% win rate (827 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (2,126 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (5,773 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.5% win rate (10,817 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.7% win rate (15,038 games)
  • 2500+: 43.0% win rate (4,236 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Blitz (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 58.2% win rate (75 games)
  • Bullet: 48.8% win rate (18,470 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (18,928 games)
  • Rapid: 45.3% win rate (1,740 games)
  • Classical: 45.3% win rate (68 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (167 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (115 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (375 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (877 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (1,056 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (175 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,310 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (3,023 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (404 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (4,030 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (6,171 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (577 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (7,233 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (7,321 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (451 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (3,395 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (813 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 28.0% expected score (28 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 39K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 47.8% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (37.3%) by 10.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.2 (decisive), meaning 93.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 43.6%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 44.6%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 312 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 45.1% (90% CI: 42.2%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 827 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 44.7% (90% CI: 42.9%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.7%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.4%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 43.8%-47.7%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Fianchetto Defense, Fianchetto Gambit is statistically balanced with a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.