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Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack

1.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

43.2%

35%55%
Floor41.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.2%.

Measured over 1.6K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.6K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.6K
Best context
not measured yet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.5%
Draws
4.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 32.2% at 0-999, 57.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (86 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 28.0% expected score (71 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (66 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 29.9% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 31.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 36.3% expected score (75 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 25.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.0% expected score (69 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (94 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (294 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack scores 43.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.2% and 45.2% — from 1.6K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.6K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack, White wins 40.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 1.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 56.5% (305 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 40.0% in Blitz (555 games) against 39.6% in Rapid (267 games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 28.9%, draws 7.9% and loses 63.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.9%. It rests on 194 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 41.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 154 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 34.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 62.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.2%. It rests on 172 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 30.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 66.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.3%. It rests on 182 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 42.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 256 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 45.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 213 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 37.3%, draws 5.6% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.1%. It rests on 115 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 54.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 305 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 45.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 759 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 37.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 57.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.0%. It rests on 555 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 35.9%, draws 7.3% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.6%. It rests on 267 Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation, Bulla Attack is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 40.9% of its games and loses 54.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.