Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation
241K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.0%.
Measured over 241K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 241K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 241K
- Best context
- 58.0% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.0% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.0%
- Draws
- 6.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.7% at 0-999, 57.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (773 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,130 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (328 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,869 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (3,515 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,309 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (3,169 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (7,073 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (3,272 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (69 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (5,226 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (12,525 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (5,745 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (218 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (7,247 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (20,361 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (8,222 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (502 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.1% expected score (33 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (11,615 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (29,307 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (9,606 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (540 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (15,310 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (32,203 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (7,430 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (243 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (16,920 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (22,318 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (2,529 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (50 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (7,377 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (2,480 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (67 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation scores 51.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.6% and 52.0% — from 241K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 241K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation, White wins 48.8%, draws 6.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 241K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.4% (9.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (131K games) against 51.7% in Rapid (39K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation has a sharpness score of 94.0 (decisive), meaning 94.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.5%, draws 6.7% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.3%, draws 8.7% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.5%, draws 9.8% and loses 38.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 70K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.8%, draws 6.5% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 131K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 46.0%, draws 10.0% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Forgacs Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.8% of its games and loses 45.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.