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Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense

6.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.9%Range (90% confident): 40.9% – 42.9%Based on 6.7K games
0%41.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 40.9% – 42.9%
Outcome Distribution
40.4%3.0%56.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...f5
Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense
Analyzen=6.7K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 41.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.9% and 42.9%), based on 6.7K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 37% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 36.9% win rate (355 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.7% win rate (741 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.9% win rate (895 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.6% win rate (915 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.9% win rate (1,127 games)
  • 1800-1999: 39.8% win rate (1,319 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.9% win rate (1,032 games)
  • 2200-2499: 37.3% win rate (303 games)
  • 2500+: 39.0% win rate (51 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (43%), worst in Classical (26%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.4% win rate (74 games)
  • Bullet: 42.6% win rate (2,397 games)
  • Blitz: 40.4% win rate (3,144 games)
  • Rapid: 36.3% win rate (1,057 games)
  • Classical: 25.9% win rate (66 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 31.3% expected score (68 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (217 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (254 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (360 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (285 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (389 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (210 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (272 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (416 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (191 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (267 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (560 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (253 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.6% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (432 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (715 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 33.5% expected score (144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (556 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (403 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 31.4% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (218 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 56.6% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 59.9% win rate for white (355 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (73.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (56.3%) by 17.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 59.9% (90% CI: 55.6%-64.1%) win rate for white, based on 355 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 54.6% (90% CI: 51.6%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 741 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 56.7% (90% CI: 54.0%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 895 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 915 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 56.9% (90% CI: 54.5%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 56.7% (90% CI: 54.4%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 57.9% (90% CI: 55.4%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 60.3% (90% CI: 55.6%-64.8%) win rate for white, based on 303 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 55.6% (90% CI: 54.0%-57.3%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 55.9% (90% CI: 54.5%-57.4%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense has a 59.8% (90% CI: 57.4%-62.3%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Massachusetts Defense is statistically favors white with a 56.6% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.