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Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation

223K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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5.Kxd1
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.9%

45%60%
Floor51.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.1%.

Measured over 223K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 7.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 223K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
223K
Best context
63.0% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
39.3% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Average game length
40 moves
Games that end decisively
92.9%
Draws
7.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.4% at 0-999, 55.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (4,017 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (6,463 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (2,483 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (7,368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (9,889 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (4,788 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 25.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (249 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (11,680 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (11,140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (5,959 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (180 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.1% expected score (344 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (14,862 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (11,348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (5,682 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (349 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (376 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (15,567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (10,356 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (3,044 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (203 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.8% expected score (299 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (17,102 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (11,595 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,943 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (90 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (79 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (13,757 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (13,431 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (1,426 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (35 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (12,365 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 61.4% expected score (11,204 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (1,081 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 73.6% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.0% expected score (8,949 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (2,704 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (80 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation scores 51.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.7% and 52.1% — from 223K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
223K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation, White wins 48.3%, draws 7.1% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 223K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 62.6% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (88K games) against 44.3% in Rapid (26K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation has a sharpness score of 92.9 (decisive), meaning 92.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 38.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 42.2%, draws 6.1% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 44.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 43.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.3%, draws 6.6% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.7%, draws 7.7% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 54.2%, draws 8.2% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 55.5%, draws 9.0% and loses 35.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.1%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 57.3%, draws 10.6% and loses 32.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 106K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.5%, draws 8.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 88K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 40.4%, draws 7.8% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 35.9%, draws 9.3% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.3% of its games and loses 44.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.