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Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit

48K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.3%

45%60%
Floor51.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.

Measured over 48K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 48K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
48K
Best context
55.3% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Worst context
47.8% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +6.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 37.1% at 0-999, 47.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (424 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (634 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (269 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (850 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (1,015 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (344 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (1,978 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (1,676 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (554 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (58 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (2,727 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (3,257 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,171 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (1,495 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (3,043 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (4,852 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,610 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (43 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (3,862 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (7,050 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,624 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (4,236 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (2,851 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (645 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,183 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit scores 52.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.9% and 52.6% — from 48K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
48K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit, White wins 50.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 48K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 54.5% (7.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.2% in Blitz (21K games) against 51.1% in Rapid (6.3K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 43.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 46.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 50.8%, draws 1.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 41.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 103 Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Mieses Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.8% of its games and loses 46.2%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.