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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation

1.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.7%

45%60%
Floor55.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.8%.

Measured over 1.1M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.1M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.1M
Best context
62.3% at 1400-1599 Classical
Worst context
54.4% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.6% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 55.9% at 0-999, 61.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (2,223 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (1,072 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (204 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (9,116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (6,562 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 60.8% expected score (1,340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (22,824 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (23,057 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (5,199 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (76 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (63 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (37,848 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (58,713 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (14,314 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (584 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (57,075 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (110,039 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (26,210 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (1,364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (63 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (67,278 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (152,390 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (36,596 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (1,951 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (68,579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (143,822 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (30,476 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (78,230 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (117,496 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (12,985 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.7% expected score (207 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (27,656 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (20,210 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (983 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (15 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation scores 55.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.6% and 55.8% — from 1.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation, White wins 53.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 1.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 57.9% (17K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 55.5% in Blitz (633K games) against 56.4% in Rapid (128K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 55.6%, draws 1.4% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 56.9%, draws 2.0% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 56.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 55.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 112K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 53.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 195K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 258K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 244K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 209K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.4%, draws 7.3% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 44.1%, draws 0.2% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 238 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 54.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 371K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 53.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 633K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 53.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 128K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 54.7%, draws 6.8% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Tal Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.6% of its games and loses 42.2%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.