Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit
7.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
64.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 65.4%.
Measured over 7.7K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 1.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.7K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 7.7K
- Best context
- 66.2% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 60.6% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 98.1%
- Draws
- 1.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 78.3% at 0-999, 65.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 69.0% expected score (138 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 65.8% expected score (81 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (404 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 64.5% expected score (307 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (56 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 62.2% expected score (682 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (741 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (91 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 66.2% expected score (1,044 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.9% expected score (797 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (116 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 66.0% expected score (1,134 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 68.7% expected score (445 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.6% expected score (62 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 65.7% expected score (1,072 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 64.7% expected score (142 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 68.1% expected score (301 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit scores 64.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 63.6% and 65.4% — from 7.7K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 7.7K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit, White wins 63.5%, draws 1.9% and loses 34.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.5%. It rests on 7.7K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 66.6% (1.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 63.9% in Blitz (2.5K games) against 60.6% in Rapid (354 games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit has a sharpness score of 98.1 (very decisive), meaning 98.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 66.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 31.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.6%. It rests on 232 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 61.0%, draws 1.2% and loses 37.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.6%. It rests on 770 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 60.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.1%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 63.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 33.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.0%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 65.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 32.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.6%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 64.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 33.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 67.3%, draws 1.5% and loses 31.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 68.0%. It rests on 307 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 64.3%, draws 1.5% and loses 34.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.1%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 62.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 34.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.9%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 59.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.6%. It rests on 354 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Martian Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 63.5% of its games and loses 34.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.