Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation
35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
43.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.9%.
Measured over 35K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 35K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 35K
- Best context
- 49.3% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 37.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 40 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.6%
- Draws
- 7.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.0% at 0-999, 41.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (101 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (71 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 33.0% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (379 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (372 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (75 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (803 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (1,575 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (244 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 33.2% expected score (40 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,879 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (5,054 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (787 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (86 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (3,140 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (7,968 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (1,255 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (68 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (4,252 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (4,336 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (759 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.6% expected score (1,348 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (179 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation scores 43.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.1% and 43.9% — from 35K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 35K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation, Black wins 39.8%, draws 7.4% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 35K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 45.1% (7.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 43.7% in Blitz (20K games) against 43.1% in Rapid (3.2K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a sharpness score of 92.6 (decisive), meaning 92.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 192 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 835 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 39.8%, draws 7.9% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 37.5%, draws 8.6% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 35.4%, draws 8.2% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 40.4%, draws 6.0% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 39.7%, draws 7.9% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 38.7%, draws 8.8% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 35.2%, draws 7.3% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.9%. It rests on 210 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.8% of its games and loses 52.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.