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Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation

35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.5%Range (90% confident): 43.1% – 43.9%Based on 35K games
0%43.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.1% – 43.9%
Outcome Distribution
39.8%7.4%52.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
12...Bd6
Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation
Analyzen=35K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.4%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 43.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.1% and 43.9%), based on 35K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 35%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.4% win rate (42 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.7% win rate (192 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.1% win rate (835 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.6% win rate (2,662 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.9% win rate (7,806 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.8% win rate (12,432 games)
  • 2200-2499: 37.5% win rate (9,353 games)
  • 2500+: 35.4% win rate (1,545 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 40.4% win rate (11,935 games)
  • Blitz: 39.7% win rate (19,567 games)
  • Rapid: 38.7% win rate (3,160 games)
  • Classical: 35.2% win rate (210 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (101 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 33.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (372 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (75 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (803 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (1,575 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (244 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 33.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,879 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (5,054 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (787 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (86 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (3,140 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (7,968 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (1,255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (4,252 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (4,336 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (759 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.6% expected score (1,348 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (179 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 35K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 56.4% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.6%) outperforms Rapid (52.5%) by 1.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a sharpness score of 92.6 (decisive), meaning 92.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.5%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 192 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 50.4%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 835 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.1%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 54.3%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.3%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.0%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.9%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation has a 57.4% (90% CI: 51.8%-63.0%) win rate for white (210 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.3%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Seirawan Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.