Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack
39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.0%.
Measured over 39K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 39K
- Best context
- 55.8% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 42.6% at 1000-1199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.0% at 0-999, 55.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (255 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (1,170 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (698 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (250 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (824 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (615 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (297 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (593 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (565 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (38 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (568 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (655 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (411 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (858 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,382 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (319 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (1,757 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (3,445 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (574 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (2,510 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (5,701 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (744 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (5,876 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,289 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (279 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,805 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (411 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack scores 51.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.2% and 52.0% — from 39K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 39K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack, Black wins 49.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 39K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 54.8% (9.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.4% in Blitz (20K games) against 46.2% in Rapid (4.2K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 47.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 51.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 38.4%, draws 10.0% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 143 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze Counterattack is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.1% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.