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Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.6%

40%55%
Floor45.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.2%.

Measured over 18K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
18K
Best context
48.9% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Worst context
38.7% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.3% · Blitz best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.7% at 0-999, 62.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (532 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (1,650 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (827 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (516 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,657 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (972 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (637 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,612 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (935 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (1,118 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,421 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (812 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 19.8% expected score (58 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (604 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,184 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (441 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (456 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,285 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (340 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (258 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (426 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (93 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (102 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (114 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation scores 45.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.0% and 46.2% — from 18K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
18K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, White wins 43.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 47.9% (2.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (9.3K games) against 43.8% in Rapid (4.4K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 40.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 44.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 41.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 45.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 780 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 43.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 228 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 42.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 45.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 41.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 30.1%, draws 7.2% and loses 62.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.7%. It rests on 173 Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 43.8% of its games and loses 52.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.