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Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation

584K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.2%Range (90% confident): 47.1% – 47.4%Based on 584K games
0%47.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.1% – 47.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.4%5.5%50.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nf6
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
Analyzen=584K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 47.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.1% and 47.4%), based on 584K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.7% win rate (979 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.3% win rate (3,305 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.6% win rate (10,908 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.5% win rate (30,748 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.2% win rate (73,158 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.8% win rate (139,384 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.9% win rate (164,556 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.8% win rate (130,358 games)
  • 2500+: 38.7% win rate (30,678 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Blitz (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.1% win rate (355 games)
  • Bullet: 45.4% win rate (250,258 games)
  • Blitz: 43.7% win rate (282,321 games)
  • Rapid: 44.2% win rate (48,966 games)
  • Classical: 45.4% win rate (2,174 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (419 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (367 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (193 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,575 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (1,309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (413 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (5,235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (4,407 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,214 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (12,873 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (14,327 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (3,372 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (116 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (26,977 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (37,388 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (8,181 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (496 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (47,110 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (76,172 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (15,117 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (907 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (53 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (64,002 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (85,729 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (14,306 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (466 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (68,329 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (55,982 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (5,900 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (23,738 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (6,640 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (270 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (25 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 584K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (31K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.3%) by 3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 41.0%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 979 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 139K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 165K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 130K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 42.9%-51.6%) win rate for white (355 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.5%) win rate for white (250K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate for white (282K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.0%) win rate for white (49K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.2%-46.7%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.6%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.