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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation

8.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.8%

40%55%
Floor47.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.7%.

Measured over 8.7K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.7K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
8.7K
Best context
50.1% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Worst context
45.2% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
95.3%
Draws
4.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 54.3%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (104 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (189 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (66 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (198 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (602 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (285 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (471 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (285 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (1,242 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (546 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (370 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (350 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (281 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (487 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (265 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (154 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (83 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation scores 48.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.9% and 49.7% — from 8.7K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
8.7K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation, White wins 46.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 8.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (1.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.4% in Blitz (4.8K games) against 50.1% in Rapid (1.9K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 46.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 362 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 44.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 962 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 46.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 457 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 35.3%, draws 33.6% and loses 31.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 119 Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 45.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance, Short Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.4% of its games and loses 48.9%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.