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Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line

454K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.6%

45%60%
Floor55.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.7%.

Measured over 454K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 454K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
454K
Best context
59.7% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Worst context
47.2% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.2%
Draws
4.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.7% at 0-999, 60.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (513 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (192 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (70 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (2,554 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 63.0% expected score (307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (8,104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (7,145 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (1,422 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (16,099 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (23,594 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (5,390 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.7% expected score (227 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (23,864 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (51,457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12,620 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (827 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (28,769 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (68,493 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (18,774 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (1,245 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (208 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (31,363 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (57,599 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (13,800 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (463 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (31,856 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (28,310 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (3,932 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (10,044 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (2,894 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (139 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line scores 55.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.5% and 55.7% — from 454K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
454K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line, White wins 53.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 454K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 56.7% (45K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 55.3% in Blitz (241K games) against 57.3% in Rapid (56K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 776 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 55.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 55.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 55.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 53.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 89K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 117K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 103K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 64K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.8%, draws 8.2% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 48.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 310 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 153K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 241K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 54.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 56K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 55.0%, draws 6.6% and loses 38.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Main Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.2% of its games and loses 42.0%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.