Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit
190K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.5%.
Measured over 190K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 190K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 190K
- Best context
- 56.8% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Worst context
- 52.3% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 53.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,260 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (4,049 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (2,255 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 80.8% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (2,378 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (5,605 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (4,394 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (69 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (3,472 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (7,584 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (5,556 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (206 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (5,619 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (10,581 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (6,086 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (399 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (9,577 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (16,576 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (5,666 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (292 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (13,175 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (23,526 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (5,767 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (264 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.8% expected score (22 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (13,556 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (18,810 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (3,230 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.8% expected score (60 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (29 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (9,980 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (6,409 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (742 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 75.8% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (2,801 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (332 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit scores 54.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.1% and 54.5% — from 190K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 190K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit, White wins 52.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 190K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 55.6% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.5% in Blitz (93K games) against 54.4% in Rapid (34K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 53.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.5%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 54.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 111 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 62K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 52.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 93K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 47.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alekhine Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.1% of its games and loses 43.6%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.