Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation
115K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.7%.
Measured over 115K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 115K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 115K
- Best context
- 48.9% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 40.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.8%
- Draws
- 3.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 44.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,810 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (6,586 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (4,337 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 66.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (3,601 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (7,597 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (4,515 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (150 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (89 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (4,461 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (9,672 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (4,574 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (271 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (301 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (4,492 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (9,642 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (4,442 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (409 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (237 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (5,162 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (8,985 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (3,000 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (229 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (78 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (5,694 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (8,242 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (1,849 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (89 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (29 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (4,294 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (3,977 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (736 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 14.9% expected score (27 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (3,805 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (899 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (112 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (534 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (43 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation scores 44.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.2% and 44.7% — from 115K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 115K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation, Black wins 42.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 115K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 45.6% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.4% in Blitz (56K games) against 42.6% in Rapid (24K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 584 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.9%, draws 1.7% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 790 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 56K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 38.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 58.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.9% of its games and loses 53.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.