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Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation

115K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.5%Range (90% confident): 44.2% – 44.7%Based on 115K games
0%44.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.2% – 44.7%
Outcome Distribution
42.9%3.2%53.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nf6
Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation
Analyzen=115K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 44.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.2% and 44.7%), based on 115K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~44%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.7% win rate (12,783 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.8% win rate (15,883 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.2% win rate (19,067 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.8% win rate (19,286 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.2% win rate (17,613 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.3% win rate (15,952 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.7% win rate (9,048 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.3% win rate (4,843 games)
  • 2500+: 42.8% win rate (584 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.9% win rate (790 games)
  • Bullet: 45.0% win rate (33,853 games)
  • Blitz: 42.6% win rate (55,643 games)
  • Rapid: 40.5% win rate (23,568 games)
  • Classical: 38.0% win rate (1,205 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,810 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (6,586 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (4,337 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 66.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (3,601 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (7,597 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (4,515 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (150 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (4,461 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (9,672 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (4,574 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (271 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (301 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (4,492 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (9,642 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (4,442 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (409 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (237 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (5,162 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (8,985 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (3,000 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (229 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (5,694 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (8,242 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (1,849 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (89 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (4,294 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (3,977 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (736 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 14.9% expected score (27 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (3,805 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (899 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (112 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (534 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 115K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.9% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.4%) by 7.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.0%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.9%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 53.3%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 584 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-54.3%) win rate for white (790 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.4%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.2%) win rate for white (56K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.9%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation has a 58.6% (90% CI: 56.3%-61.0%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Masi Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.