Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit
129K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
62.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 62.2%.
Measured over 129K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 129K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 129K
- Best context
- 67.3% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 59.3% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.8%
- Draws
- 3.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.0% at 0-999, 69.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (194 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (65 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.9% expected score (20 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (875 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 64.2% expected score (417 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.8% expected score (64 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (2,812 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (2,309 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (301 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 67.5% expected score (30 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (6,216 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 63.7% expected score (8,556 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 65.7% expected score (1,086 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 73.0% expected score (42 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (52 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (12,241 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (18,792 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.5% expected score (2,957 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.5% expected score (184 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 74.7% expected score (41 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (16,244 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 62.9% expected score (19,449 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (3,935 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.3% expected score (142 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 62.3% expected score (17,354 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 64.7% expected score (6,777 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (1,084 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 67.3% expected score (5,908 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.5% expected score (393 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.4% expected score (23 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit scores 62.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 61.8% and 62.2% — from 129K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 129K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit, White wins 60.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 36.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.0%. It rests on 129K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 67.1% (6.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 62.7% in Blitz (57K games) against 63.3% in Rapid (9.5K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 65.9%, draws 2.0% and loses 32.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.9%. It rests on 280 Lichess games, which average 21 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 60.6%, draws 1.8% and loses 37.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.5%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 60.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 37.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.7%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 61.6%, draws 2.0% and loses 36.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 59.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.6%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 59.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 36.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.4%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 61.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 35.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.1%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 64.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 30.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.1%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 60.9%, draws 0.9% and loses 38.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.4%. It rests on 162 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 59.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 37.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.2%. It rests on 62K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 60.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 35.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.7%. It rests on 57K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 61.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 34.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.3%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 62.1%, draws 6.3% and loses 31.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.3%. It rests on 402 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 60.3% of its games and loses 36.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.