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Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit

5.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

56.1%

45%65%
Floor55.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.2%.

Measured over 5.3K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.3K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
5.3K
Best context
59.2% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
52.3% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +12.4% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.6% · UltraBullet best · Rapid worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.6% at 0-999, 64.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (71 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (79 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (368 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (140 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (623 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (399 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.0% expected score (156 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,187 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (138 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (681 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (711 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit scores 56.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.0% and 57.2% — from 5.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
5.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit, White wins 54.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 5.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.3% (712 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 56.8% in Blitz (980 games) against 45.1% in Rapid (141 games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 56.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 126 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 55.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 299 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 54.1%, draws 1.7% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 628 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 55.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 834 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 57.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.3%. It rests on 712 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 57.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 314 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 54.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 54.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 980 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 43.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 141 Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.6% of its games and loses 42.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.