Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit
369 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.5%.
Measured over 369 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 369 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 369
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.9%
- Draws
- 3.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.1% at 0-999, 69.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (70 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (56 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (78 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (30 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit scores 53.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 57.5% — from 369 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 369+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit scores 53.3% (range, 90% confident: 49.0% – 57.5%) for White, based on 369 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit performs best at 1600-1799, where it scores 57.3% for White (151 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, Bullet (55.6%) outperforms Rapid (47.9%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit scores 57.3% (range, 90% confident: 50.6% – 63.7%) for White, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit scores 53.0% (range, 90% confident: 45.9% – 60.1%) for White, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit scores 55.6% (range, 90% confident: 48.5% – 62.6%) for White (133 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit scores 53.5% (range, 90% confident: 47.3% – 59.8%) for White (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit is about level with a 51.7% (range, 90% confident: 47.4% – 55.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.