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Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation

231K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.5%

40%55%
Floor47.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.6%.

Measured over 231K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 231K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
231K
Best context
49.9% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
37.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
94.8%
Draws
5.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.0% at 0-999, 34.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (597 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (1,226 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (621 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (1,763 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (1,223 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 81.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (2,179 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (2,233 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (1,388 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (79 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,285 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (3,930 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (1,509 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (80 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (8,754 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (10,561 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (1,738 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (159 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (62 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (17,985 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (25,691 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (2,830 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (210 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (25,502 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (40,178 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,181 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (130 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (34,046 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (25,535 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (1,572 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (8,948 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (1,471 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation scores 47.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.3% and 47.6% — from 231K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
231K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation, Black wins 44.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 231K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (69K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.4% in Blitz (113K games) against 45.2% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 42.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 40.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.4%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.0%, draws 7.1% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 53.2%, draws 1.6% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 332 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 103K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.3%, draws 6.2% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 113K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.9%, draws 6.5% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.2%, draws 8.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 663 Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.8% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.