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Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation

231K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.5%Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 47.6%Based on 231K games
0%47.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 47.6%
Outcome Distribution
44.8%5.2%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...gxf6
Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation
Analyzen=231K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 47.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.3% and 47.6%), based on 231K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 42% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.1% win rate (2,448 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.5% win rate (4,097 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.6% win rate (5,861 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.8% win rate (9,883 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.2% win rate (21,341 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (46,778 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.4% win rate (69,018 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.6% win rate (61,181 games)
  • 2500+: 40.0% win rate (10,437 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.2% win rate (332 games)
  • Bullet: 45.9% win rate (103,384 games)
  • Blitz: 44.3% win rate (112,588 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (14,077 games)
  • Classical: 41.2% win rate (663 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (597 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (1,226 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (621 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (1,088 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (1,763 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (1,223 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 81.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (2,179 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (2,233 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (1,388 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (79 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,285 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (3,930 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (1,509 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (80 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (8,754 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (10,561 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (1,738 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (159 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (62 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (17,985 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (25,691 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (2,830 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (210 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (25,502 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (40,178 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,181 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (130 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (34,046 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (25,535 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (1,572 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (8,948 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (1,471 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 231K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (4.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.1%) by 6.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.0%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 69K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 40.7%-49.6%) win rate for white (332 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white (103K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.8%) win rate for white (113K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.2%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-54.0%) win rate for white (663 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.