Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line
151K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.6%.
Measured over 151K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 151K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 151K
- Best context
- 55.1% at 0-999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 43.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.2% at 0-999, 44.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (795 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,710 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,930 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (1,584 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (4,020 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (2,687 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (52 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,966 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,981 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (3,559 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (118 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (4,206 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (10,714 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (4,782 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (217 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (4,907 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (13,939 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (5,320 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (273 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (6,044 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (17,227 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (6,042 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (352 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (6,140 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (15,567 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (3,796 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (150 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (6,354 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (11,740 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (1,111 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (2,195 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (2,096 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (58 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line scores 51.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.1% and 51.6% — from 151K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 151K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line, Black wins 49.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 151K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (20K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.1% in Blitz (85K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (29K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.5%, draws 8.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 51.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 85K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Retreat Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.3% of its games and loses 46.7%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.