Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack
16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.7%.
Measured over 16K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 16K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 16K
- Best context
- 51.4% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.7% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.7% at 0-999, 55.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (48 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (212 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (93 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.6% expected score (99 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (444 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (237 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (348 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (783 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (419 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (367 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,532 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (598 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (38 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (500 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (2,754 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (935 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (88 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (287 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (2,206 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,360 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (44 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (398 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,283 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (626 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (162 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (327 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (76 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack scores 49.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.4% and 49.7% — from 16K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 16K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack, White wins 46.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 16K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.8% (2.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (9.6K games) against 48.3% in Rapid (4.3K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 353 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 46.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 781 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 45.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 45.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 504 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 46.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 40.1%, draws 7.2% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 214 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Prins Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.8% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.