Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System
207K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.7%.
Measured over 207K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 207K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 207K
- Best context
- 52.8% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.2% at 0-999, 51.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (784 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (3,335 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,699 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 24.1% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,773 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (5,126 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (3,115 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (3,405 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (8,396 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (4,697 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (151 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (54 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (5,331 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (12,863 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (5,920 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (285 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (144 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (7,634 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (18,973 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (6,887 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (332 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (53 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (10,829 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (22,495 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (6,841 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (294 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (12,091 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (20,074 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (3,668 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (120 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 65.7% expected score (40 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (14,867 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (14,135 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (1,007 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (50 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (7,053 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (1,869 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (32 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 48.7% — from 207K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 207K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 207K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.3% (5.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (107K games) against 47.3% in Rapid (34K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.6%, draws 6.7% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 384 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 64K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 107K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Gurgenidze System is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.