Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line

236K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
6...Bb4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.7%

40%55%
Floor47.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.9%.

Measured over 236K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 236K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
236K
Best context
49.0% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Worst context
45.1% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.1%
Draws
4.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.0% at 0-999, 45.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (469 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (457 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,343 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (436 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (4,489 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (6,570 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,519 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (7,984 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (14,158 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (3,760 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (166 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (12,578 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (22,941 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (5,978 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (365 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (68 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (18,991 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (29,551 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (6,739 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (456 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.2% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (19,436 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (24,771 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (4,581 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.8% expected score (51 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (19,972 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (15,052 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,507 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (5,886 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (2,185 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line scores 47.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.6% and 47.9% — from 236K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
236K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 236K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.1% (56K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (118K games) against 47.0% in Rapid (25K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.4%, draws 8.4% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 309 Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 92K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 118K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.7%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 39.8%, draws 8.5% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.2% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.