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Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line

236K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.9%Based on 236K games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 47.9%
Outcome Distribution
45.2%4.9%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bb4
Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line
Analyzen=236K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 47.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 47.9%), based on 236K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.5% win rate (1,000 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.8% win rate (4,686 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.9% win rate (12,615 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.7% win rate (26,116 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.6% win rate (41,927 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.7% win rate (55,805 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.2% win rate (49,050 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.4% win rate (36,618 games)
  • 2500+: 41.4% win rate (8,123 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.6% win rate (309 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (91,707 games)
  • Blitz: 45.2% win rate (118,028 games)
  • Rapid: 43.7% win rate (24,640 games)
  • Classical: 39.8% win rate (1,256 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (469 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (457 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (2,343 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (436 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (4,489 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (6,570 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,519 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (7,984 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (14,158 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (3,760 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (166 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (12,578 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (22,941 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (5,978 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (365 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (68 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (18,991 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (29,551 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (6,739 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (456 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.2% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (19,436 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (24,771 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (4,581 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.8% expected score (51 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (19,972 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (15,052 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,507 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (5,886 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (2,185 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 236K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.4%) by -0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 49K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 51.4% (90% CI: 46.7%-56.0%) win rate for white (309 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.0%) win rate for white (92K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.4%) win rate for white (118K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.4%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-54.0%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Panov Attack, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.