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Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line

337K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.3%Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.5%Based on 337K games
0%50.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.5%
Outcome Distribution
47.5%5.6%46.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bxf3
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line
Analyzen=337K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.6%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 50.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 50.5%), based on 337K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.5% win rate (8,398 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.4% win rate (13,389 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.4% win rate (19,908 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (27,064 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (36,453 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.0% win rate (55,086 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.1% win rate (74,689 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.1% win rate (81,149 games)
  • 2500+: 41.7% win rate (20,563 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (59%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 58.9% win rate (244 games)
  • Bullet: 49.7% win rate (102,947 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (183,679 games)
  • Rapid: 46.6% win rate (47,727 games)
  • Classical: 46.3% win rate (2,102 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (1,752 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (4,161 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (2,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,341 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (6,073 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (3,911 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (60 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (5,823 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (9,156 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (4,764 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (151 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.6% expected score (43 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (7,874 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (13,405 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (5,456 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (286 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 71.1% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (9,307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (20,702 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (6,056 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (342 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 66.9% expected score (43 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (13,179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (32,036 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (9,239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (589 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (43 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (17,960 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (46,284 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (9,892 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (510 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (30,333 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (45,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (5,571 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (134 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (13,378 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (6,798 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (363 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 337K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.0% win rate for white (21K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (40.1%) by 7.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.9%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 81K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 40.1% (90% CI: 35.0%-45.3%) win rate for white (244 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.4%) win rate for white (103K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 47.2% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (184K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.5%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-47.0%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack, Mindeno Variation, Exchange Line is statistically balanced with a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.