Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation
237K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.7%.
Measured over 237K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 237K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 237K
- Best context
- 62.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.1% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.8% at 0-999, 53.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (1,528 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (5,719 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (3,465 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 25.7% expected score (17 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (2,649 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (5,546 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (3,923 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (84 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (51 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (4,868 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (7,052 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (3,575 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (186 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (110 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (7,266 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (11,251 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (4,020 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (271 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (588 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (10,145 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (16,700 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (4,037 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (223 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (682 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (13,086 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (24,772 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (4,419 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (236 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (85 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (21,804 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (27,992 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (4,098 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (128 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (17,563 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (17,389 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (1,454 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 66.4% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (8,419 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (1,924 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (90 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation scores 55.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.4% and 55.7% — from 237K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 237K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 237K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.0% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 55.8% in Blitz (118K games) against 53.7% in Rapid (29K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 54.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 55.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 54.1%, draws 5.8% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 55.4%, draws 7.1% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 51.7%, draws 1.4% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 54.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 87K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 118K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 49.9%, draws 7.0% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Goldman Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.5% of its games and loses 42.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.