Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line
10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.1%.
Measured over 10K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 10K
- Best context
- 61.0% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 52.8% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 57.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (71 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (158 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (289 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (345 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,239 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (183 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (826 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (2,309 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (367 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,294 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,965 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (190 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (504 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (155 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line scores 55.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.5% and 56.1% — from 10K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 10K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line, White wins 53.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 10K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.9% (667 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.8% in Blitz (6.1K games) against 54.5% in Rapid (802 games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 118 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 53.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 494 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 56.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 37.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.9%. It rests on 667 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 52.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.2%, draws 6.5% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 802 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.0% of its games and loses 42.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.