45K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 48.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.1% and 48.8%), based on 45K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 82% → 41%
Best in UltraBullet (46%), worst in Classical (38%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 45K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.4% win rate for white (645 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.3%) outperforms Classical (43.6%) by 5.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a sharpness score of 92.6 (decisive), meaning 92.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 48.6% (90% CI: 42.3%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 164 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 53.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 645 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.0%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.8%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-48.0%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.
In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a 43.6% (90% CI: 38.8%-48.4%) win rate for white (282 Lichess games). Draw rate is 18.2%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.