Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System
45K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.8%.
Measured over 45K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 45K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 45K
- Best context
- 50.2% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.9% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 41 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.6%
- Draws
- 7.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 76.7% at 0-999, 46.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (22 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 61.0% expected score (26 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (81 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (71 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (334 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (252 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (54 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (698 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (1,129 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (192 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,508 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (3,336 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (604 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (100 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,864 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (8,865 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (1,312 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (116 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (5,336 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (11,491 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (1,684 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (3,121 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (1,385 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (119 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 48.8% — from 45K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 45K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System, Black wins 44.8%, draws 7.4% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 45K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.8% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (27K games) against 48.5% in Rapid (4.0K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System has a sharpness score of 92.6 (decisive), meaning 92.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 164 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 645 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.3%, draws 8.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.9%, draws 9.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.0%, draws 7.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.6%, draws 9.7% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 38.3%, draws 18.2% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 282 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Lobron System is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.8% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.