Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit
249K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
60.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 60.7%.
Measured over 249K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 249K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 249K
- Best context
- 65.2% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 55.7% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.3%
- Draws
- 2.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 54.4%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (760 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (438 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (98 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.3% expected score (3,223 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 65.2% expected score (1,994 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (442 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 85.2% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (55 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.7% expected score (7,350 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 62.5% expected score (5,369 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (1,297 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (92 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.5% expected score (13,031 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 64.7% expected score (11,191 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (2,918 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.8% expected score (49 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 66.6% expected score (186 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 62.5% expected score (19,070 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (20,504 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (4,676 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (113 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.2% expected score (179 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 61.3% expected score (25,603 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (27,580 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (5,746 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (172 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (136 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (26,262 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (22,000 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (3,740 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (55 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (33 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (26,876 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (8,024 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (1,097 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (7,852 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (461 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (32 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit scores 60.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 60.4% and 60.7% — from 249K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 249K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit, White wins 59.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 38.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.5%. It rests on 249K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 64.0% (27K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 60.0% in Blitz (98K games) against 61.1% in Rapid (20K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 58.1%, draws 1.7% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 21 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 61.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.4%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 61.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 37.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 63.0%, draws 1.9% and loses 35.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.0%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 61.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 36.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.8%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 58.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.9%. It rests on 59K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 57.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 56.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 56.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 62.2%, draws 0.6% and loses 37.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.5%. It rests on 697 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 59.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.8%. It rests on 130K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 58.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.0%. It rests on 98K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 59.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 37.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.1%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 54.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 419 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Alien Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 59.1% of its games and loses 38.1%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.