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Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation

6.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.8%Range (90% confident): 43.8% – 45.9%Based on 6.0K games
0%44.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.8% – 45.9%
Outcome Distribution
42.3%5.0%52.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Nb6
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation
Analyzen=6.0K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 44.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.8% and 45.9%), based on 6.0K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 43% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.7% win rate (18 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.4% win rate (69 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.6% win rate (235 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.0% win rate (853 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.2% win rate (1,836 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.2% win rate (2,360 games)
  • 2500+: 37.6% win rate (579 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (52%), worst in Bullet (42%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 41.7% win rate (1,995 games)
  • Blitz: 42.6% win rate (3,404 games)
  • Rapid: 41.9% win rate (511 games)
  • Classical: 51.6% win rate (44 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199————
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 67.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (50 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (39 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (255 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (489 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (94 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (510 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (1,108 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (205 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (741 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (1,464 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (146 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (414 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (159 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation, Main Line
53.0%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (2.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.9%) outperforms Rapid (50.0%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 40.2%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 235 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 853 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 52.7%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-58.8%) win rate for white, based on 579 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 53.1%-56.7%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.4%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 46.4%-53.7%) win rate for white (511 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Smyslov Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.