Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack
8.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.
Measured over 8.1K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.1K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 8.1K
- Best context
- 51.1% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Worst context
- 39.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.6%
- Draws
- 6.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.1% at 0-999, 38.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 62.3% expected score (27 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (33 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (48 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (103 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (52 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (104 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (257 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (120 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (221 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (421 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (200 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (286 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (801 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (246 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (331 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (1,046 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (327 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (522 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (1,065 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (254 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (448 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (728 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (59 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 37.0% expected score (186 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (109 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack scores 48.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.4% and 49.2% — from 8.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 8.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack, Black wins 45.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 8.1K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 54.8% (485 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.9% in Blitz (4.6K games) against 49.3% in Rapid (1.3K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 204 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 485 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 860 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 37.5%, draws 8.4% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 34.2%, draws 7.8% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.2%. It rests on 298 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.3%, draws 7.2% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.1% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.