8.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 48.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 49.2%), based on 8.1K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 48% → 34%
Similar across time controls (~47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.1K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.9% win rate for white (298 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.1%) outperforms Classical (39.6%) by 9.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 47.0% (90% CI: 41.3%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 204 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 43.7% (90% CI: 40.0%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 485 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 46.1% (90% CI: 43.4%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 860 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 46.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 54.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 57.9% (90% CI: 53.2%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 298 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.9%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.7%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-50.2%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Karpov Variation, Tiviakov-Fischer Attack is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.