Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
121K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.
Measured over 121K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 121K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 121K
- Best context
- 54.0% at 0-999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 39.4% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.6% at 0-999, 49.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (934 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (4,030 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (1,866 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (27 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,360 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (6,053 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (2,880 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (74 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,999 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (7,979 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (4,606 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (236 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (2,783 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (9,941 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (5,640 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (435 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (2,922 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (13,008 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (6,548 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (447 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (3,401 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (14,311 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (6,003 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (314 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (2,636 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (9,645 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,861 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (100 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,645 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (5,051 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (635 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 15.2% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (332 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (557 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation scores 48.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 49.1% — from 121K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 121K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 121K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.1% (6.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.8% in Blitz (71K games) against 48.8% in Rapid (31K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.7%, draws 8.2% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 903 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 71K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 48.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.5% of its games and loses 48.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.