Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit
40K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.3%.
Measured over 40K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 40K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 40K
- Best context
- 53.5% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 47.2% at 0-999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.7% at 0-999, 45.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (239 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (890 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (402 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (375 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,486 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (857 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (544 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,805 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (1,306 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (50 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (46 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (888 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (2,947 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,658 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (103 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (54 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (975 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (4,124 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (2,015 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (213 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (47 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,386 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (4,176 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (2,449 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (94 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (35 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (3,540 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (2,379 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,072 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,584 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,373 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (465 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.9% expected score (105 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.0% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit scores 50.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 51.3% — from 40K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 40K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 40K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.6% (7.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.0% in Blitz (19K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (10K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 45.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 37.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 123 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 42.9%, draws 1.8% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 198 Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 44.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 493 Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.9% of its games and loses 47.2%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.