Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation
41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.3%.
Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 41K
- Best context
- 62.3% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Worst context
- 53.2% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.4%
- Draws
- 5.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.0% at 0-999, 61.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (77 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 67.0% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 74.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.5% expected score (216 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (155 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (524 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (527 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (134 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (1,516 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (2,251 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (361 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (2,369 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (4,630 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (822 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (58 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (3,370 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (7,176 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (1,063 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (51 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (6,058 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (5,898 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (571 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.7% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (2,183 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (888 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.5% expected score (30 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 55.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.5% and 56.3% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 55.9% (range, 90% confident: 55.5% – 56.3%) for White, based on 41K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation performs best at 1400-1599, where it scores 60.7% for White (1.2K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, Rapid (58.9%) outperforms Classical (55.0%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 61.6% (range, 90% confident: 54.3% – 68.8%) for White, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 59.2% (range, 90% confident: 55.2% – 63.1%) for White, based on 409 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 60.7% (range, 90% confident: 58.3% – 63.0%) for White, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 56.7% (range, 90% confident: 55.4% – 58.0%) for White, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 57.8% (range, 90% confident: 56.8% – 58.7%) for White, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 55.0% (range, 90% confident: 54.3% – 55.8%) for White, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 55.1% (range, 90% confident: 54.4% – 55.8%) for White, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 54.4% (range, 90% confident: 53.0% – 55.9%) for White, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 55.4% (range, 90% confident: 54.8% – 56.0%) for White (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 55.9% (range, 90% confident: 55.3% – 56.5%) for White (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 58.9% (range, 90% confident: 57.5% – 60.4%) for White (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 55.0% (range, 90% confident: 48.6% – 61.4%) for White (159 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.1%.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation is good for White with a 53.1% (range, 90% confident: 52.7% – 53.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.