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Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.9%

45%60%
Floor55.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.3%.

Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
41K
Best context
62.3% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Worst context
53.2% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
94.4%
Draws
5.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.0% at 0-999, 61.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 67.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 74.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.5% expected score (216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (155 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (524 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (527 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (134 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (1,516 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (2,251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (361 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (2,369 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (4,630 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (822 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (3,370 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (7,176 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (51 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (6,058 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (5,898 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (571 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (2,183 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (888 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores 55.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.5% and 56.3% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation, White wins 53.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 60.7% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 55.9% in Blitz (22K games) against 58.9% in Rapid (3.0K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 61.0%, draws 1.2% and loses 37.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.6%. It rests on 119 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 57.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 409 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 59.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 37.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 55.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 55.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.5%, draws 7.1% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.8%, draws 9.3% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 55.6%, draws 6.7% and loses 37.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 48.9%, draws 12.1% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 159 Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Classical Variation, Flohr Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.1% of its games and loses 41.3%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.