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Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation

25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.6%

40%55%
Floor46.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.1%.

Measured over 25K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
25K
Best context
51.3% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Worst context
39.2% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
94.6%
Draws
5.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.0% at 0-999, 44.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (238 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (130 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (296 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (114 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (292 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (651 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (258 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (760 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (500 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (887 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,817 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (743 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,165 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (3,626 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (1,089 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,750 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (2,552 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (516 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (3,135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (960 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (110 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (831 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (80 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation scores 46.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.1% and 47.1% — from 25K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
25K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate?

Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 25K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 51.9% (544 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.9% in Blitz (13K games) against 45.1% in Rapid (3.4K games).

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 335 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 544 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.9%, draws 6.2% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.0%, draws 7.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.8%, draws 7.2% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 913 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.0%, draws 6.2% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 48.1%, draws 6.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 141 Lichess games.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Finnish Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.9% of its games and loses 50.7%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.