Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer
740K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.0%.
Measured over 740K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 740K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 740K
- Best context
- 57.7% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.4% at 1200-1399 Classical
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.4% at 0-999, 57.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (79 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (11,802 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (24,025 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (12,885 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (57 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (185 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (19,368 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (29,868 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (17,044 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (289 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (496 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (29,698 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (36,239 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (18,244 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (597 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (1,246 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (42,879 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (49,142 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (19,368 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (805 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (1,071 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (44,919 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (68,020 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (17,729 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (760 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (1,076 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (49,072 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (64,732 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (15,638 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (578 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (468 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (39,504 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (39,580 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (8,296 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (197 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (196 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (31,698 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (22,266 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (2,749 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (59 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (11,510 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (5,516 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (162 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer scores 54.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.8% and 55.0% — from 740K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 740K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer, White wins 52.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 740K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 57.1% (132K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 55.3% in Blitz (339K games) against 52.9% in Rapid (112K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 47.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 113K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 55.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 132K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 131K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 88K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.7%, draws 6.0% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.9%, draws 7.9% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 49.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 280K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 339K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 112K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 46.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.9% of its games and loses 43.1%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.