Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense
8.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.
Measured over 8.6K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.6K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 8.6K
- Best context
- 55.5% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 48.2% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.8% at 0-999, 43.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (67 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (102 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (182 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (354 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (88 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (203 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (757 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (255 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (178 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (868 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (361 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (213 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (608 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (332 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (191 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (541 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (242 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (302 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (721 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (101 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (535 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,039 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (180 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (103 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense scores 51.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.2% and 51.9% — from 8.6K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 8.6K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate?
Playing the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 8.6K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense perform best?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 55.5% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.6% in Blitz (5.1K games) against 51.3% in Rapid (1.4K games).
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 44.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 187 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 626 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 986 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 53.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.1%, draws 6.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 283 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense a good opening?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.2% of its games and loses 47.1%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.