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Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense

8.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.1%Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 51.9%Based on 8.6K games
0%51.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 51.9%
Outcome Distribution
49.2%3.7%47.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Qb6
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense
Analyzen=8.6K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 51.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 51.9%), based on 8.6K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.8% win rate (187 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.2% win rate (626 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (1,218 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.5% win rate (1,419 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (1,168 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.7% win rate (986 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.9% win rate (1,125 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.1% win rate (1,603 games)
  • 2500+: 40.6% win rate (283 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in Blitz (49%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 50.5% win rate (2,051 games)
  • Blitz: 48.5% win rate (5,093 games)
  • Rapid: 49.6% win rate (1,426 games)
  • Classical: 52.7% win rate (45 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (102 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (182 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (354 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (88 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (203 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (757 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (255 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (178 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (868 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (361 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (213 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (608 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (332 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (541 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (242 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (302 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (721 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (101 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (535 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (180 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (103 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation
47.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Hillbilly Attack
44.6%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation
49.2%
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Botvinnik-Carls Defense
46.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Two Knights Attack
50.2%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (283 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.3%) outperforms Rapid (47.1%) by 0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 46.8%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 187 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 42.9%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 626 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 45.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 986 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 43.0% (90% CI: 40.6%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 45.6% (90% CI: 43.5%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 48.0%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 283 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-48.7%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.5%) win rate for white (5.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-49.3%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Van der Wiel Attack, Dreyev Defense is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.